Using the web to predict regional trade flows

My SAD 2021 talk


See here my slides and the talk for the SAD seminar series. It is based on our work with Andre Carrascal Incera and George Willis on ‘Using the web to predict regional trade flows’.

We model and predict interregional trade flows for the UK using the digital traces that interregional trade leaves behind. We scrape open web data containing hyperlinks between commercial websites and apply ML techniques for out-of-sample predictions. Our main hypothesis is that such hyperlinks reflect business and trade relations.

Emmanouil Tranos
Professor of Quantitative Human Geography